Fast Company article on Duncan Watts and his research contra importance of “the influentials.”
Harvard Business Review article on why you shouldn’t invest in “the long tail.”
So far The Black Swan holds up.
Tags: Business, Politics, recession
January 17, 2009 at 12:55 am
Karl Popper’s ‘Conjectures and Refutations’ (among others) mapped out decades ago why you can’t engineer society. And why efforts to do so tend towards tyranny.
Being able to follow exposure to advertisement banner –> click –> purchase has surely shown us that adversiting is a poor investment. The internet has done a great deal to prove that advertising does not succeed. Then again, spam more than pays for itself. So perhaps it’s about who can be lead more than who will lead.
January 17, 2009 at 3:18 am
What does your comment have to with the Tipping Point, the Long Tail, and the debunking there of?
Some advertising has historically proven to be effective – classified ads, coupons, and direct mail for instance. Internet advertising, by way of being testable, has suggested that much of previous advertising is ineffective (even that much is inconclusive – just because someone isn’t clicking an ad banner doesn’t mean they are absorbing an advertising message and will not make a purchase later).
But the testability of Internet advertising has lead to refinement of Internet advertising, so that we are able to see measurable success of Internet advertising campaigns.
BTW – Popper is cited in and figures prominently into the Black Swan.
January 18, 2009 at 6:15 pm
Q: “What does your comment have to with the Tipping Point, the Long Tail, and the debunking there of?”
A: Popper explained why the idea of “the Influencers” is not fruitful.
Some advertising (on- or offline) has proven effective. What is the percentage of ads that yeild sales to ads that do not yeild sales? I will stand by my claim that advertising is a poor investment.
Glad to see Popper is quoted anywhere, thanks.
January 20, 2009 at 2:28 pm
>A: Popper explained why the idea of “the Influencers” is not fruitful.
The Tipping Point was more concerned with using influencers to sell sneakers or whatever than to “engineer society.”
Ethan Zuckerman looks at the costs/effectiveness of advertising here: http://www.ethanzuckerman.com/blog/2009/01/16/is-ad-supported-journalism-viable-in-a-pay-for-performance-age/
Can loan you Black Swan when I am done with it if you’re interested.
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