Tageconomics

Black Swan review/summary by Dan Hill

Dan Hill provides an excellent summary of The Black Swan and includes a few excepts specifically useful to designers and urban planners.

This is a book that I almost didn’t read. Like The Long Tail or Here Comes Everybody, for instance. Both books I own but don’t feel the need to read, feeling that I’ve already having experienced much of what lies inside. This betrays my own arrogance I suppose, and I’ve no doubt I’ve missed a few profound insights this way. But given the choice I prefer to read about things I don’t know, books that don’t promise to back up my existing ideas. Then there are those like Gladwell’s Blink or The Tipping Point, books whose title more or less says it all. A quick rifle through the pages of these books in an airport bookshop – in that peculiar pre-flight mode of having no time and time on your hands – is enough to get the gist, and speculate as to their point.

The Black Swan almost fell into this category, but a recommendation by Paul Schütze and a few others meant that I did pick it up – at Melbourne Airport, ironically – and consumed it voraciously.

It’s not so much a popular science book as a popular statistics book, not a genre I would’ve thought probable to emerge, and thus something of a black swan in itself.

Full Story: City of Sound.

Another good overview can be found by reading The Telegraph’s interview with Taleb

Bruce Sterling: State of the World, 2009

An Indo-Pakistani nuclear war might conceivably take a *back page* to the fiscal crisis.

I always knew the “War on Terror” bubble would go. It’s gone. Nobody misses it. It got no burial. I knes was gonna be replaced by another development that seemed much more burningly urgent than terror Terror TERROR, but I had a hard time figuring out what vast, abject fright that might be.

Now I know. Welcome to 2009! […]

As Orlov accurately points out, in the Russian collapse, if you were on a farm or in some small neighborly town, you were toast. The hustlers in the cities were the ones with inventive opportunities, so they were the ones getting by.

So the model polity for local urban resilience isn’t Russia. I’m inclined to think the model there is Italy. Italy has had calamitous Bush-levels of national incompetence during almost its entire 150-year
national existence.

Before that time, Italy was all city-states — and not even “states,” mostly just cities. Florence, Milan, Genoa, Venice. Rome. They were really brilliantly-run, powerful cities. (Well, not Rome — but Rome
was global.) Gorgeous cities full of initiaive and inventive genius. If you’re a fan of urbanism you’ve surely got to consider the cities of the Italian Renaissance among the top urban inventions of all time.

Full Story: WELL

The Edge question of the year: what will change everything?

Stewart Brand, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Douglas Rushkoff, Garret Lisi and about a bazillion more weigh in on this year’s Edge question:

New tools equal new perceptions.

Through science we create technology and in using our new tools we recreate ourselves. But until very recently in our history, no democratic populace, no legislative body, ever indicated by choice, by vote, how this process should play out.

Nobody ever voted for printing. Nobody ever voted for electricity. Nobody ever voted for radio, the telephone, the automobile, the airplane, television. Nobody ever voted for penicillin, antibiotics, the pill. Nobody ever voted for space travel, massively parallel computing, nuclear power, the personal computer, the Internet, email, cell phones, the Web, Google, cloning, sequencing the entire human genome. We are moving towards the redefinition of life, to the edge of creating life itself. While science may or may not be the only news, it is the news that stays news.

And our politicians, our governments? Always years behind, the best they can do is play catch up.

Nobel laureate James Watson, who discovered the DNA double helix, and genomics pioneer J. Craig Venter, recently were awarded Double Helix Awards from Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory for being the founding fathers of human genome sequencing. They are the first two human beings to have their complete genetic information decoded.

Watson noted during his acceptance speech that he doesn’t want government involved in decisions concerning how people choose to handle information about their personal genomes.

Venter is on the brink of creating the first artificial life form on Earth. He has already announced transplanting the information from one genome into another. In other words, your dog becomes your cat. He has privately alluded to important scientific progress in his lab, the result of which, if and when realized, will change everything.
WHAT WILL CHANGE EVERYTHING?
“What game-changing scientific ideas and developments do you expect to live to see?”

Full Story: Edge

Very nice to start the year with advice from Taleb

Benoit Mandelbrot and Nassim Nicholas Taleb think the financial crisis may be as serious as the American Revolution

(Thanks Clifford Pickover)

Limbaugh: Democrats Started The Economic Crisis To Help Elect Obama

Today, the New York Times had an article about how right-wing talk radio is gearing up to aggressively go after President-elect Obama over the next four years. Rush Limbaugh demonstrated his commitment to this crusade today on his radio show by blaming Democrats — especially Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) — for starting the current economic crisis.

Here’s how Limbaugh’s conspiracy theory goes: Schumer caused on run on IndyMac bank in California this summer, in order to create a feeling of financial panic amongst the public. Democrats then capitalized on this panic with electoral wins in the White House and Congress. The purpose of gaining this power, according to Limbaugh, was to nationalize U.S. industries:

LIMBAUGH: Who’s benefiting? Aside from the people being bailed out. The Democrat party and Barack Obama are benefiting.

Full Story: Think Progress

(via Ryan King)

Notes from Peter Lamborn Wilson (Hakim Bey)’s Recent Talk on Money

hakim bey peter lamborn wilson

Clay tablets existed in ancient Mesopotamia. Specie, that is coinage, did not. This is an invention of the ancient peoples of Asia Minor and the Greek Islands. Here we see money gaining a more explicit religious and magickal quality. Gold was plentiful in this area, and is also a malleable metal easy to imprint with both words and images. When temple sacrifices of the local bull cults became so popular that not everyone could get a piece of bull, an ingenius method was reached to give every pilgrim a symbol of involvement in the ritual- the temple token. Rather than a piece of bull, pilgrims were given a small piece of gold with a bull impressed on one face. The two sided coin comes later with an image on one side and a caption on the other. Money becomes qualitatively more magickal with this step, uniting the image and the word into a talismatic object which has a value unrelated to its real value as commodity. It is no longer simply a magickal document recording debt and / or wealth. It is a magickal object whose value comes from belief. As Peter points out: All money is fiat money. Gold has no inherent value. It’s shiny, and makes cool jewelry and all that, but it is not what the anarcho-capitalist types will have you believe, a universal medium of exchange. Sure, it holds value over millenia (particlarly with regard to silver), but there is not reason to use gold more than say, diamonds or uranium or coal or any other commodity in limited supply. Quoth Mr. Wilson: “Money is proof that magick works, it is perhaps the only proof.”

Black Sun Gazette: A Redux Request: Hakim Bey on Money

Excellent visual guides to the bailout, the financial crisis, etc.

visual guide to the financial crisis: the bailout

My new favorite web app mint.com and Wall Stats have created an excellent series of visualizations of the economic crisis.

(Thanks Chris 23)

Hakim Bey speaking in NYC!

If you’re in NYC, don’t miss this. This is an exceedingly rare opportunity.

The Libertarian Book Club/Anarchist Forum presents…

Tuesday, December 16, at 7:00pm

PETER LAMBORN WILSON’s CHAOS DAY of 2008
THE MAGIC OF MONEY AND THE FUTURE OF CAPITALISM

“The History of Money since Sumeria to its Apotheosis as Pure Imagination in the 21st Century”

Peter Lamborn Wilson on finance as a form of gnosticism, a long historical view of the current crisis, and the prospects for resistance and revolution in the 21st century.

The event will take place at The Living Theatre, 21 Clinton Street, Manhattan (just south of Houston St) (212-792-8050). Coming from uptown, take the F or V train to “2nd Avenue” (exit front of train on 1st Ave, walk east along Houston and turn right on Clinton) or coming from downtown, take the F, V, M or Z train to “Delancey – Essex” and walk east on Delancey three blocks and turn left on Clinton for 2 and a half blocks.

Everybody is welcome and invited to come and to have their say.

There is no set fee for the presentation, but a contribution to aid the LBC is suggested.

If you have questions, contact the Libertarian Book Club/Anarchist Forum, 212-475-7180 or e-mail: roberterler (at) erols.com

Peter Lamborn Wilson is an American political writer, essayist, and poet, known for first proposing the concept of the Temporary Autonomous Zone (TAZ), based on a historical review of pirate utopias. He sometimes writes under the name Hakim Bey.

Via Arthur

On the value of complementary currency

I was a little surprised at the hostility towards complementary currency over at Cryptogon, and since I can’t comment there I will comment here.

The Milwaulkie Community currency thing is obviously nothing new, LETS and Hours programs have been around for years (and Time Banking even longer than that). Like Kevin points out, you still have to pay taxes on your currency. And although I don’t think paying taxes is the worst thing in the world, the need to pay taxes in fiat causes the biggest obstacles for these currencies: you can’t pay your property taxes with ’em. You also can’t pay your mortgage. So getting food producers and landlords to accept alternative currencies is tough, and I’d wager food and rent are most people’s biggest expenses.

So what’s the point then? First of all, LETS and similar systems are a time tested recession-survival tactic (read this and this). They reduce (but don’t eliminate) dependence on fiat and the central banking system, and have enabled economies to keep doing business when fiat currency dries up. Establishing alternative systems now, and not after true systemic collapse (a la Argentina) is wise.

The more individuals and businesses in a community adopt an alt. currency, the more useful it becomes, Metcalf’s Law style. So over time getting food producers and perhaps even apartment complexes on board is plausible. I’d encourage people starting alternative currencies to target small time gardeners and people w/ basements for rent as starting points.

Of course, the real draw backs can/will come when governments feel their monopoly on currency is threatened. Read my article “the New Currency War” to find out more.

National Intelligence Council’s latest report: Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World

A new study of the global future by U.S. intelligence agencies suggests that Al Qaeda may be on the decline, having alienated Muslim supporters with its indiscriminate killing and inattention to the practical problems of poverty, unemployment and education.

While not contradicting intelligence assessments suggesting that Al Qaeda remains a major threat with a strong presence in the tribal areas of Pakistan, the report says the group “may decay sooner” than many experts have assumed because of severe weaknesses: “unachievable strategic objectives, inability to attract broad-based support, and self-destructive actions.”

From an American point of view, the predicted decline of Al Qaeda is one of the few bright spots in the report, “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World,” which predicts a significant relative decline in the world dominance of the United States as China, India and other powers assert themselves.

Full Story: International Herald Tribune

Or Download the report from the National Intelligence Council

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