We’ve got to give law professor Eric Goldman credit: the man sticks with his predictions. On December 5, 2005, he made the startling claim that Wikipedia would “fail within five years.” On December 5, 2006, Goldman doubled down on his prediction, saying that Wikipedia “will fail in four years.” […]
But the preservation of credibility this way comes at a huge cost. First, it means that Wikipedia has failed—at least when it comes to the original utopian idea of an encyclopedia that anyone, anywhere can edit at anytime. Those days are behind us, says Goldman; that might not be a bad thing, but it does mean that Wikipedia’s core talent pool now needs to solve the labor problem by finding new ways to reward those who donate so much time to the site—and do a better job welcoming newcomers.