MonthJuly 2010

40 Things You Need to Know About the Next 40 Years

mud buildings

I haven’t read any of these yet, but some of them sound intriguing:

1. Sophisticated Buildings Will Be Made Of Mud
2. Coral Reefs Will Be Devastated
3. The Catch of the Day? Jellyfish
4. New Cars Will Be Given Away, Free
5. Industry Will Generate Energy In Space
6. Oysters Will Save Wolves From Climate Change
7. 2,000 New Mammal Species Will Be Discovered
8. It’s Curtains For The World’s Rarest Dolphin
9. Farmers Will Plant Spinach In Tall Buildings
10. The Nation Will Meet The Tests Of The Century Ahead
11. The Heartland Will Rise Again
12. The Top U.S. Social Problem? Upward Mobility
13. By 2050, One Out Of Three U.S. Kids Will Be Latino
14. World War III Will Begin. In Space
15. Most Americans Fear For The Planet’s Health
16. Unless We Conserve, More People Will Go Hungry
17. An Ancient Grain, Fonio, Will Fight Starvation
18. Afghanistan Risks Turmoil For 40 Years
19. Glowing Squid Will Lead To New Antibiotics
20. Health Workers Will Eradicate Malaria
21. Science Could Enable A Person To Regrow A Limb
22. Astronomers Will Discover Life Beyond Earth
23. How Will We Avert The Dinosaurs’ Fate? Telescopes
24. Brain Scans Will Illuminate The Infant Mind
25. Artists Will Run The World
26. Novelists Will Need A New Plot Device
27. Everyone Will Make His Own Music
28. Secrets Will Reveal If Young JFK Was “Vacuous”
29. James Cameron Will Still Be Making Movies At 96
30. Stand-up Comedy Will No Longer Kill
31. Native American Youths Will Revive Their Culture
32. U.S.-Muslim Relations Will Improve
33. Evolution Will Continue In Reverse, Humorist Says
34. A Medical Lab Will Fit On A Postage Stamp
35. Viruses Will Help Build Machines
36. Goodbye, Stereo; Hello, Hyper-Real Acoustics
37. Electricity Will Be Harvested From Your Skin
38. Crucial Energy Will Be Generated With Mirrors
39. Your Refrigerator Will Talk To You
40. Reading Will Become An Athletic Activity

Smithsonian: 40 Things You Need to Know About the Next 40 Years

(via Theoretick)

The New Jenkem: I-Doser

iDoser
Above: actual promotional image for iDoser’s affiliate program. What a bunch of scrumbags!

We’ve covered I-Doser before, but the ridiculous fears about it are back:

Kids around the country are getting high on the internet, thanks to MP3s that induce a state of ecstasy. And it could be a gateway drug leading teens to real-world narcotics.

At least, that’s what Oklahoma News 9 is reporting about a phenomenon called “i-dosing,” which involves finding an online dealer who can hook you up with “digital drugs” that get you high through your headphones.

And officials are taking it seriously.

“Kids are going to flock to these sites just to see what it is about and it can lead them to other places,” Oklahoma Bureau of Narcotics and Dangerous Drugs spokesman Mark Woodward told News 9.

Threat Level: Report: Teens Using Digital Drugs to Get High

I-Doser could be the worst drug since Jenkem. Be afraid. Very afraid.

Silliness aside, I-Doser does seem to be a pretty scummy company. I-Doser is actually based on the open-source application SbaGen, and it used SbaGen’s code without permission. That’s on top of its shady “per dose” pricing for its bunk “product,” which makes mp3 DRM seem reasonable. There’s a torrent available of I-Doser files ported to SbaGen, so please: don’t let your friends use iDoser.

More:

Wikipedia: Binaural Beats

Gnaural – another open-source binaural-beat generator

Social Physics with Kyle Findlay – Technoccult Interview

Kyle Findlay

Regular readers of this site may have noticed a large number of posts on this site credited to “Social Physicist” – the Twitter handle of Kyle Findlay (and yes, you could be forgiven for confusing our names). Kyle works for a group within one of the world’s largest market research companies, which he describes as a “mini-think tank” with the purpose of exposing people to new ways of thinking and doing things. Having enjoyed his Twitter stream for the past year or so, I got in touch with Kyle Findlay to ask him about the practice of “social physics.” He talked to me by instant message from from his home in Cape Town, South Africa.

Klint Finley: What, as a “social physicist,” do you actually do?

Kyle Findlay: Well, at the moment I’m on my own in this “field,” if you can call it that. It just seems like the best description of what I do and what interests me so hopefully it sticks.

Basically, my interest is in understanding how people act as groups. As emergent entities that have their own (hopefully) predictable and describable topological forms. That’s the lofty idea anyway. And the tools of chaos theory, systems theory, network theory, physics, mathematics, etc. help describe this.

Do you have a background in physical sciences?

None at all. I studied “business science” at the University of Cape Town. My first job was for a company with a strong academic background, started by a professor of religion and a statistician. They used a 5-dimensional catastrophe cusp model to describe people’s relationships with ideas.

The moment I was exposed to this thinking, something clicked. A lot of contradictions that I saw in the world around me were resolved. Ever since I have had an insatiable desire to understand these areas. Which led me to interact with experts in many disciplines from neuroscience to economics, math, physics, AI, ecology, biology, etc. Every field has a piece of the puzzle. I am lucky to work in an environment that gives me free rein to indulge my passion.

Fractal Zoom
Sketch: Fractal Zoom by Kyle Findlay

Do you think what you do is different from systems thinking or social cybernetics?

They are definitely components. Systems thinking is a broad umbrella term. Cybernetics definitely helps us to understand and describe the patterns and multi-dimensional shapes that society creates. But I think that you need the hard sciences like math and physics to really get at the heart of it. Which is why I am feverishly trying to catch up on many years of missing education.

Do you think there are any dangers in applying models designed for physical systems to human behavior?

Yes there are – you will always be at least slightly wrong. There are a lot of parallels between the way people act in groups and other types of particles. But you also have the same problems of predictability in complex systems: sensitivity to initial conditions, 3-body problem, etc. It’s kind of the paradox of it all, something I am still trying to come to grips with.

What’s the most surprising insight you’ve discovered since you started studying this?

Everything is the same and everything is just information. The universal nature of nature is astounding. You see the familiar signs everywhere: from the atomic through to the cosmic level. It makes me think that there really is only one true science or line of inquiry and that most specialised fields are just facets of this. The more fields I delve into, the more commonalities I discover. It’s become par for the course for me now I think. But in the beginning, it really blew my mind.

Man's Part in the System
Sketch: Man’s Part in the System by Kyle Findlay

Have you been able to apply this stuff in any interesting ways? For example, I know you’ve prepared presentations on network theory and power laws for work.

Those have gone down really well within the silos I work in. People have really been amazed when I’ve shown them these kinds of things. It gets their minds racing.

I’m also doing some work applying systems theory to sports science, which can really benefit from changing the way they view the human body. Music is another area that makes a lot more sense from this point of view.

One of my favourites is understanding how human attention works and how to synchronise communication so that it becomes internalized, but that is very theoretical and could be seen as slightly Machiavellian so I won’t go there.

Also, I’ve been having some interesting chats with a neuroscientist around decision-making, attention, etc. The applications are really endless, it’s just where you choose to focus you own attention.

How would you suggest someone interested get started studying social physics?

Well, considering I’m not 100% sure what falls into the bounds of the field myself, it’s difficult to say. There’s no university course for it as far as I know. I would say that you need to have an intense desire to understand why people do what they do. And a slightly perverse fascination with the human condition. Looking at life from a systems perspective is a good start. Understand that patterns are formed internally, that change is the only constant. You can then use tools like network theory, noise analysis, entropy, etc. to understand these ebbs and flows.

Are you familiar with Stephen Wolfram? He wrote a book called a New Kind of Science.

Yes, I know of Stephen Wolfram from his software and Wolfram Alpha. I’ve been intimidated by the size of his book, though. I struggle justifying devoting so much time to one book, which probably says more about me…

Yeah, I haven’t picked it up yet either.

He sounds like a really bright guy. I think I watched a talk of his at the Singularity Summit or somewhere similar, but to be honest, can’t remember much of it.

Most of my reading is in the scientific literature, interspersed with a good book or graphic novel.

Flatland by Edwin A. Abbott

Speaking of which, do you know of any works of fiction that demonstrate the principles you’re interested in?

Good question. Not too many spring to mind. A classic is Flatland by Edwin Abbot – the quintessential metaphor for perceiving multiple dimensions. The guy wrote a book about perceiving multiple dimensions in the 1800s! Impressive.

A recent book that blew my mind was Accelerando by Charles Stross. He has a great worldview but his insights were more in terms of extrapolating the directions technology is going in.

Yourself? Any suggestions?

Snow Crash seems like it might be relevant. Or the film Run Lola Run.

I am ashamed to admit that I haven’t read Snow Crash. Why do you say Run Lola Run? Time? Sensitivity to initial conditions?

Yep. It shows how tiny changes in a system can have far-ranging results. A starting delay of only a couple of seconds radically changes things for several characters in the different timelines.

True. I’m not going to mention Back to the Future 2 or The Butterfly Effect (although I just did).

Have you heard of the 1990 film, Mindwalk?

No.

It was co-written by Fritjof Capra and consists of several characters discussing the nature of the world from a systems perspective. I have to admit that i fell asleep during it… but I was very tired.

That sounds pretty amazing though.

Yeah – good credentials right there.

My personal favourites are any films or books that push society’s limits. Subversive materials rule in my book (no pun intended). Anything that helps me push back my pre-conceptions and shatter my expectations. They were great at that in the 70s, in music, film and literature. Probably a side-effect of the 60s experimentations. I’m a big fan of exploitation flicks.

Let’s see, what else… I haven’t read Alan Moore’s Big Numbers. But Moore seems to have a pretty good grasp on complexity, judging by Watchmen and From Hell.

I haven’t read Big Numbers either. What elements do you think he draws on in those books?
Watchmen

Watchmen itself seems to be very mathematical – the use of symmetry and so on. In terms of themes, maybe it doesn’t touch on this stuff much, apart from some of Dr. Manhattan’s comments.

Yeah, he definitely weaves a non-linear richness into his tales that is admirable. The way he weaves the various threads of a story together.

I forget why I thought From Hell was relevant. Maybe it’s not.

Also, he calls himself a chaos magician. Watching an interview with him a while back, I could actually identify with a lot of what he was saying.

I wasn’t going to go there, but… have you studying chaos magic or the occult at all?

No I haven’t. That Moore interview is probably as far as I have gone. It’s just not a direction I feel I can go in and remain “grounded” if I want other researchers to take me seriously. But I can definitely see how he got there.

Well, I have and I think you’re better off studying natural sciences, systems, and complexity IMHO.

[Laughs] Cool, thanks for the advice.

But the book Techgnosis by Erik Davis examines a lot of parallels between information theory and cybernetics and mysticism and the occult. I think it stands up pretty well, even if you’re not interested in magic.

I think you have to have a certain detachment to take a step back and observe the world. And when you start seeing everything as inter-related and part of the same thread it becomes easier to start imagining that you can define the tapestry with your perceptions. I guess I don’t want to open that Pandora’s Box. In my view it untethers you. Again, talking from an inexperienced point of view in this area.

Davis’ book sounds interesting though.

From an interview with Manuel DeLanda (who you might be interested in) -conducted by Davis, incidentally:

As Deleuze says, “Always keep a piece of fresh land with you at all times.” Always keep a little spot where you can go back to sleep after a day of destratification. Always keep a small piece of territory, otherwise you’ll go nuts.

Yeah exactly. I find that the concepts I deal with in my day job challenge me enough, and that’s all based on empirically grounded ‘fact’ in the scientific literature.

Most people work very hard to maintain their reality, but I do think that you have to have an affinity towards detachment. A certain world view that is open to having your illusions shattered and actually enjoying that experience. And the cutting edge of science delivers those experiences in spades.

Kyle Findlay

More Info

Kyle on Twitter

Kyle’s Slideshares

Kyle’s Flickr

‘The Pekar Project’ Editor Explains What’s Next For Harvey Pekar’s Unpublished Work

Cleveland

MTV: Where do things stand with “The Pekar Project” now? How far ahead did Harvey work on the scripts?

NEWELT: There are still a bunch of comics yet to come out on “The Pekar Project” that we have in the can and done. […]

MTV: I know Harvey had been working on a few other books, too. Were you involved with any of those? Do you know what their status is?

NEWELT: The first branch-off of “The Pekar Project” is coming out this year. He was working on a graphic novel called “Cleveland,” which comes out during the summer of 2011 from this company called Zip Comics. The script was ready for that. It’s one-third history of Cleveland, one-third Harvey’s experiences there, and one-third biographical sketches of Cleveland characters. It’s drawn by Joseph Remnant, one of the definitive Pekar artists.

MTV: ‘The Pekar Project’ Editor Explains What’s Next For Harvey Pekar’s Unpublished Work

Long-Form Journalism, Contrary to Conventional Wisdom, is Extremely Popular at Slate

long form

You may recall the online magazine’s Fresca initiative — so named for editor David Plotz’s passionate and non-ironic obsession with the grapefruity beverage — which launched last year to give Slate writers and editors the opportunity to focus on long-form work. Essentially, the fellowship program requires that every editorial staff member at Slate (Plotz recently added copy editors to the Fresca pool) take four to six weeks off from their normal jobs — and use that time to produce one in-depth piece (or, often, a series of in-depth pieces) on a subject that compels them. So far, the project has netted such praiseworthy specimens of long-form as, among others, Tim Noah’s analysis of why the U.S. hasn’t endured another successfully executed terror attack since 9/11 and Julia Turner’s look at the fascinating complexities of signage and June Thomas’ examination of American dentistry and Dahlia Lithwick’s crowd-sourced foray into chick-lit authorship and John Dickerson’s reclamation of risk-taking after the financial crash gave that quintessential American practice a bad name.

The other thing the initiative has netted? Pageviews. They’ve been in the millions, a Slate rep told me: over 4 million for Noah’s piece, over 3.5 million for Thomas’, nearly 3 million for Turner’s. That’s especially significant considering the length of the pieces, which often run in the tens of thousands of words. Combine that with New York Times Magazine editor Gerry Marzorati’s claim, last year, that “contrary to conventional wisdom, it’s our longest pieces that attract the most online traffic” — and, come to think of it, with tablet computing’s promise of portable, pleasurable reading experiences — and “tl;dr”: you are on watch.

Nieman Journalism Lab: “Smart editorial, smart readers, and smart ad solutions”: Slate makes a case for long-form on the web

I can say that my longest piece at ReadWriteWeb has been my most popular.

Smile or Die: Bright Sided as a 10 Minute Marker Board Cartoon

(via The Breaking Time)

The Best Reason NOT to Buy a Tablet or E-Reader

Justin Bolland wrote at Pizza SEO:

Don’t tell me to get a Kindle or an iPad. Dude, I work on a damn computer. For hours on end, every day. I don’t want to carry one of these demon boxes around with me like a demon child suckling my blood out through my fucking eyeballs, you read me?

I know it’s a pretty simple/obvious statement but… still. That hits home. The best reason to read books and magazines on paper is because they are not on computers.

I don’t own a tablet or Kindle or anything like that yet, but I’ve been wanting something along those lines for quite some time. And I do have an iPod Touch that I use for reading. I also own a lot of books, magazines, and comics. And I’ve been moving them around with me for years. I long for the day when everything’s on a nice simple device, backed up to the cloud, and easily searchable.

But ever since my interview with Ashley Crawford, I’ve been spending more time reading actual physical books and magazines. I’d spent the last several years trying to kick my print habit and go all digital, but I’ve gone back on the pulp – and, I’ll admit, loving it. However, until I read Justin’s post, I still figured I’d pick up an Android tablet or something eventually.

And I still may. I did spend the better part of today reading off of screens, and I doubt I’ll ever be able to get away from screen reading. But I’ve got to say, at least at this point in space-time, print is looking better than ever.

What Futurists Actually Do

Futurist

The first of a series of articles on futurism for GOOD Magazine:

When we transform our notion of “the future” into visions of alternative futures, we transform our relationship to the very idea of change. We move from thinking we are heading toward an inevitable destination to seeing the world as a dependent, contingent, and therefore actionable, possibility space for us to design. Pluralizing “the future” makes us both more empowered and more responsible for our ultimate outcomes. It may seem like a semantic triviality, but it represents an important shift in thinking.

Even though we can’t predict exactly what will happen, we can make reasonable assumptions about what potential futures might look like, and in doing so we can begin to make choices today that can help us bring about the changes we hope to realize in the world.

GOOD: What Futurists Actually Do

(via Chris)

See also:

Interview with Chris Arkenberg interview of IFTF

Interview with David “Pesco” Pescovitz of Boing Boing and IFTF

Wired Guide to Personal Scenario Planning

Times article on IFTF

Why Facts Backfire

Stubborn

I’ve covered this problem before, but it’s good to see it getting more traction – whether it will do any good remains to be seen.

We often base our opinions on our beliefs, which can have an uneasy relationship with facts. And rather than facts driving beliefs, our beliefs can dictate the facts we chose to accept. They can cause us to twist facts so they fit better with our preconceived notions. Worst of all, they can lead us to uncritically accept bad information just because it reinforces our beliefs. This reinforcement makes us more confident we’re right, and even less likely to listen to any new information. And then we vote.

This effect is only heightened by the information glut, which offers — alongside an unprecedented amount of good information — endless rumors, misinformation, and questionable variations on the truth. In other words, it’s never been easier for people to be wrong, and at the same time feel more certain that they’re right.

Jay Rosen draws attention to the slight difference in behavior between self-identified liberal and conservatives:

The participants who self-identified as conservative believed the misinformation on WMD and taxes even more strongly after being given the correction. With those two issues, the more strongly the participant cared about the topic — a factor known as salience — the stronger the backfire. The effect was slightly different on self-identified liberals: When they read corrected stories about stem cells, the corrections didn’t backfire, but the readers did still ignore the inconvenient fact that the Bush administration’s restrictions weren’t total.

I also thought this was particularly interesting:

A 2006 study by Charles Taber and Milton Lodge at Stony Brook University showed that politically sophisticated thinkers were even less open to new information than less sophisticated types. These people may be factually right about 90 percent of things, but their confidence makes it nearly impossible to correct the 10 percent on which they’re totally wrong.

Boston Globe: How facts backfire

(via Jay Rosen)

It’s not all doom and gloom, but I’ll let you read the article for the few rays of optimism. One thing not mentioned in the article: fact checking articles are becoming more popular (but I suppose they might not actually change people’s minds).

NPR covered this today as well, but I was disappointed in the portion of it I heard.

See also: Birthers and the Democratization of Media.

Further problem: getting people to act on information once they have it and accept it.

Photo: James Jordan / CC

Can you teach yourself synaesthesia?

Synaesthesia

A researcher at the University of Amsterdam has concluded that synaesthesia might not be merely genetic:

To test the idea, they gave seven volunteers a novel to read in which certain letters were always written in red, green, blue or orange (see picture). Before and after reading the book, the volunteers took a “synaesthetic crowding” test, in which they identified the middle letter of a grid of black letters which were quickly flashed onto a screen. Synaesthetes perform better on the test when a letter they experience in colour is the target letter.

The volunteers performed significantly better on this test after training compared with people who read the novel in black and white.

Seven is a really small sample size. This needs to be reproduced with larger samples to be accepted.

New Scientist: Can you teach yourself synaesthesia?

(Thanks Nova!)

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